So how did I do? Well, my Oscar prognostications came up better than last year but still a little short of the mark. I had five correct calls out of eight, with two others where I was in the ballpark but not spot on and one more that was a surprise. On the two near-misses, I essentially overrated the chances of one projected candidate and underestimated the prospects of the winner. Perhaps I allowed my personal preferences to cloud my judgment in picking the winners. In any event, here are the details:

Best Picture

The Field:  “Bugonia”, “F1”, “Frankenstein”, “Hamnet”, “Marty Supreme”, “One Battle After Another”, “The Secret Agent” (“O Agente Secreto”) (Brazil), “Sentimental Value” (“Affeksjonsverdi”) (Norway), “Sinners”, “Train Dreams”

Projected Winner:   “Sinners”

Preferred Winner:   “Bugonia”

Actual Winner:   “One Battle After Another”

Result:  Mixed result (sort of)

In many of the categories, “Sinners” (with a record 16 nominations) and “One Battle After Another” (with 13 nominations) were the frontrunners and locked in formidable competition with one another, and the results reflected that, with “Sinners” taking home four Oscars and “One Battle After Another” capturing six, including in this category. Indeed, in most of their head-to-head races, the winners were essentially toss-ups.

As for my prediction in this race, I came out on the wrong side of the outcome. In essence, I overestimated the viability of a win for “Sinners” and underestimated it for “One Battle After Another” (though I did acknowledge that my prediction could have just as easily gone the other way than what I forecasted, which is precisely what happened). I can’t say that I’m disappointed with the result, as I would have been fine with either film taking home the statue, even though my preference would have been for “Bugonia,” which, unfortunately, didn’t stand a chance.

Best Actor

The Field:  Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”; Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”; Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”; Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”; Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent” (“O Agente Secreto”) (Brazil)

Projected Winner:  Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”

Preferred Winner:  Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”

Actual Winner:  Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”

Result:  Correct call

When Michael B. Jordan claimed the top prize at the Actor Awards, he positioned himself to win the Oscar, as that honor is often an indicator of who captures the Academy’s honor, despite the fact that there were different winners in virtually all of the other competitions leading up to it this year. My preference here would have been for Ethan Hawke, but, as the only nominee who didn’t win anything in the other awards season contests, his chances, sadly, were virtually nonexistent here.

Best Actress

The Field:  Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”; Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”; Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue”; Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value” (“Affeksjonsverdi”) (Norway); Emma Stone, “Bugonia”

Projected Winner:  Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”

Preferred Winner:  Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”

Actual Winner:  Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”

Result:  Correct call

Jessie Buckley’s Oscar win was the closest thing to a lock in the acting categories this year, so her victory was far from a surprise. Though I would have preferred to see this accolade bestowed on Rose Byrne, I can’t say I’m disappointed with this result, despite the fact that Buckley’s performance was one of the few genuinely noteworthy attributes of her film.

Best Supporting Actor

The Field:  Benicio del Toro, “One Battle After Another”; Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein”; Delroy Lindo, “Sinners”; Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”; Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value” (“Affeksjonsverdi”) (Norway)

Projected Winner:  Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”

Preferred Winner:  Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”

Actual Winner:  Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”

Result:  Correct call

It took a long time for a frontrunner to emerge in this race (with four different actors attaining victories in the runup to the Oscars), but, when Sean Penn finally began to pull away from the pack in the most recent competitions, he set himself up as the provisional favorite for this prize and, fortunately, he rightfully took top honors. This was the only acting category where my prediction and preference lined up, and I’m pleased to see that’s how events played out.

Best Supporting Actress

The Field:  Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value” (“Affeksjonsverdi”) (Norway); Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value” (“Affeksjonsverdi”) (Norway); Amy Madigan, “Weapons”; Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”; Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”

Projected Winner:  Amy Madigan, “Weapons”

Preferred Winner:  Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”   

Actual Winner:  Amy Madigan, “Weapons”

Result:  Correct call

While Amy Madigan didn’t sweep this category during awards season (with Teyana Taylor taking the Golden Globe, Wunmi Mosaku winning the BAFTA and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas capturing the National Board of Review Award), she did win several other accolades, as well as a number of film critics’ awards competitions. Taylor would have been my choice in this category, but, thankfully, she didn’t exit awards season without recognition.

Best Casting (i.e., Best Ensemble)

The Field:  “Hamnet”, “Marty Supreme”, “One Battle After Another”, “The Secret Agent” (“O Agente Secreto”) (Brazil), “Sinners”

Projected Winner:  “Sinners”

Preferred Winner:  Toss-up: “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another”

Actual Winner:  “One Battle After Another”

Result:  Missed call (sort of)

This was another of those races in which the battle was on between “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another” and I came up on the wrong side of the result. In all honesty, these were the only two films among the nominees that had a realistic chance of winning, outclassing the other three candidates by a wide margin, so picking the victor here essentially came down to a coin toss, and I lost (sort of).

Best Director

The Field:  Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet”; Josh Safdie, “Marty Supreme”; Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”; Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value” (“Affeksjonsverdi”) (Norway); Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”

Projected Winner:  Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”

Preferred Winner:  Toss-up: Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”; Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value” (“Affeksjonsverdi”) (Norway); and Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”

Actual Winner:  Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”

Result:  Correct call

Paul Thomas Anderson completed his awards season sweep with this win, and it wasn’t a hard call to make. He admittedly faced some competition from Ryan Coogler and Joachim Trier, but neither of them had enough momentum behind their candidacies to take home the award.

Best International Picture

The Field:  “The Secret Agent” (“O Agente Secreto”) (Brazil), “It Was Just an Accident” (“Yek tasadef sadeh”) (France), “Sentimental Value” (“Affeksjonsverdi”) (Norway), “Sirât” (Spain), “The Voice of Hind Rajab” (“Sawt Hind Rajab”) (Tunisia)

Projected Winner:  “The Secret Agent” (“O Agente Secreto”) (Brazil)

Preferred Winner:   “The Voice of Hind Rajab” (“Sawt Hind Rajab”) (Tunisia)

Actual Winner:  “Sentimental Value” (“Affeksjonsverdi”) (Norway)

Result:  Missed call (thankfully)

This category turned out to be one of Oscar night’s biggest surprises. Given that “The Secret Agent” (“O Agente Secreto”) took most of the honors in prior competitions, it seemed the most likely choice to come up the victor here. However, I should have sensed a momentum shift beginning to emerge at the BAFTA Awards, the most recent contest with an international film category, where “Sentimental Value” (“Affeksjonsverdi”) took the top prize. That victory could have started the ball rolling toward the picture’s Oscar win. While my choice would have been “The Voice of Hind Rajab” (“Sawt Hind Rajab”), I can’t say I’m disappointed with the win by “Sentimental Value” (“Affeksjonsverdi”). I’m just glad “The Secret Agent” (“O Agente Secreto”) didn’t capture yet another in a string of undeserved awards season wins.

Congratulations to all the winners. In the meantime, for more on how I arrived at my predictions for the winners, please see my previous blog on the subject, “Who Will Win the 2026 Oscars?”

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