My 2025 Oscar Scorecard

So how did I do? Well, my Oscar prognostications came up more than a little short this year. I only had three correct calls out of six, with two others where I was in the ballpark but not spot on. To make matters worse, though, I was disappointed with the results in all but two of the big six categories. Perhaps I allowed my personal preferences to cloud my judgment in picking the winners. Or, perhaps, like many handicappers, I had difficulty selecting the victors given the variability in results that occurred in many of the contests leading up to the Oscars (especially in light of what an awful movie year 2024 proved to be, as evidenced by the pool of named nominees). I guess I’ll never know. In any event, here are the details:

Best Picture

The Field: “Anora”, “The Brutalist”, “A Complete Unknown”, “Conclave”, “Dune: Part Two”, “Emilia Pérez”, “I’m Still Here” (“Ainda Estou Aquí”), “Nickel Boys”, “The Substance”, “Wicked”

Projected Winner: A three-way race among “The Brutalist”, “Conclave” and “Anora”, with the edge to “The Brutalist”

Preferred Winner: “I’m Still Here” (“Ainda Estou Aquí”)

Actual Winner: “Anora”

Result: Mixed result

This was one of the most difficult calls to make, given that there was no clear-cut favorite. I honestly believed that “The Brutalist” had the edge, given its screen epic qualities, the kind of film that Hollywood typically likes to think it makes all the time (and that it consequently likes to honor). “Anora” struck me as being a little too fringe to come through with the top prize, although it had been steadily gaining strength in the best picture and other categories in the contests immediately prior to the Oscars. What’s more, its win for best picture here could reflect changing perspectives in Hollywood as a new constituency of younger award voters with different cinematic sensibilities has begun to emerge, something that I have only begun to recognize and appreciate in the wake of the results.

My underwhelmed impression of this film may have factored into my prediction, too. Nevertheless, I suspect that, over time, “Anora” is likely to be looked back upon as one of the more forgettable best picture winners (think “Shakespeare in Love” (1998), “The Artist” (2011) or “Argo” (2012)). I have also heard a fair amount of discontent with this result among moviegoers, a sentiment that I can’t disagree with, especially since this underwhelming, undercooked and not terribly original work from filmmaker Sean Baker pales compared to such previous efforts as “Tangerine” (2015), “The Florida Project” (2017) and “Red Rocket” (2021). In any event, the result is what it is, and I guess we will have to live with it, regardless of one’s personal feelings.

As noted above, my preference in this category was Brazil’s “I’m Still Here” (“Ainda Estou Aquí”), which couldn’t realistically be viewed as anything more than a long shot dark horse. Still, I’m very pleased to see that it was nominated and that it won the Oscar for best international film, an honor of which it was truly deserving.

Best Actor

The Field: Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”; Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”; Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing”; Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave”; Sebastian Stan, “The Apprentice”

Projected Winner: Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”

Preferred Winner: Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”

Actual Winner: Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”

Result: Correct call

Brody held the greatest number of cards coming into Oscar night, having won virtually everything throughout awards season – and deservedly so. Brody truly was the class of this field and definitely deserved the victory. Granted, his record-setting 5:40 acceptance speech was a bit much, but I suppose that’s not surprising coming from someone who appeared in a film with a 3:35:00 runtime (everything’s proportional, I guess). Still, it’s always gratifying to see the right performer win for the right performance, as was the case here.

Best Actress

The Field: Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked”; Karla Sofía Gascón, “Emilia Pérez”; Mikey Madison, “Anora”; Demi Moore, “The Substance”; Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here” (“Ainda Estou Aquí”)

Projected Winner: A three-way race between Demi Moore, “The Substance”; Mikey Madison, “Anora”; and Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here” (“Ainda Estou Aquí”), with the edge to Demi Moore

Preferred Winner: Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here” (“Ainda Estou Aquí”)

Actual Winner: Mikey Madison, “Anora”

Result: Mixed result

This was another difficult call in light of the variability among winners in other competitions leading up to the Oscars. I genuinely saw this as a three-way race, but I gave the edge to Moore because she had collected the greatest number of statues coming into Hollywood’s big night (not to mention that she was also seen as a sentimental favorite for this comeback performance). So, when Madison’s name was called to come to the stage, it was something of a surprise to many prognosticators. While it’s true she was in the running and had been gaining strength in recent weeks, she still didn’t have as impressive a pedigree as Moore, particularly in light of Moore’s win at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, often a strong precursor of who will capture the Oscar.

In all likelihood, Madison’s win could be seen as another manifestation of the shift in voter perspectives and attitudes. Nevertheless, in the wake of this performance, I have to wonder where this will lead for the actress’s future. I didn’t see this portrayal as especially noteworthy, and whether that translates into a brilliant career going forward remains to be seen. I wish her well, though I believe she has much to prove beyond this role.

As with the best picture category, my preference here was for Fernanda Torres in “I’m Still Here” (“Ainda Estou Aquí”). She was the class of the field and deserved to win, as she did at the Golden Globe Awards. I’m disappointed that she didn’t receive her props here, but I’m grateful that her performance was at least recognized with a nomination. I hope we see more of her going forward.

Best Supporting Actor

The Field: Yura Borisov, “Anora”; Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”; Edward Norton, “A Complete Unknown”; Guy Pearce, “The Brutalist”; Jeremy Strong, “The Apprentice”

Projected Winner: Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”

Preferred Winner: Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”

Actual Winner: Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”

Result: Correct call

Culkin’s victory was largely a foregone conclusion going into awards night. He had won every major honor in the run-up to the Oscars, and that was not expected to change. It’s true that he faced some genuinely formidable competition from Guy Pearce for “The Brutalist” and Jeremy Strong for “The Apprentice”, but Culkin nevertheless bested them at every turn in prior contests. As with Brody in the lead actor category, this truly was another case of the right actor winning for the right performance.

Best Supporting Actress

The Field: Monica Barbaro, “A Complete Unknown”; Ariana Grande, “Wicked”; Felicity Jones, “The Brutalist”; Isabella Rossellini, “Conclave”; Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez”

Projected Winner: Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez”

Preferred Winner: Any of Ariana Grande, “Wicked”; Felicity Jones, “The Brutalist”; or Isabella Rossellini, “Conclave”

Actual Winner: Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez”

Result: Correct call

Like Culkin’s win in the supporting actor, category, Saldaña’s victory here came as no surprise. Again, as someone who won virtually everything leading up to the Oscars, there was no reason to believe that a different result would turn up on awards night. While I believed there were more deserving nominees in this category – Grande, Jones and Rossellini (despite her comparatively small role) – there was no stopping the Saldaña juggernaut, making this an easy result to call.

Best Director

The Field: Sean Baker, “Anora”; Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”; James Mangold, “A Complete Unknown”; Jacques Audiard, “Emilia Pérez”; Coralie Fargeat, “The Substance”

Projected Winner: Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”

Preferred Winner: Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”

Actual Winner: Sean Baker, “Anora”

Result: Missed call

For all the reasons why I believed “The Brutalist” would win Best Picture, I was convinced that those same qualities would translate into a win for Corbet. I didn’t see him as having a lock on the award, but I felt his competitors definitely had their work cut out for them to capture the Oscar, so much so that I didn’t even factor any of them into my assessment beyond dark horse or also ran status. Obviously, I was wrong.

For all the reasons why “Anora” took top honors in the night’s biggest prize, those same qualities factored into Baker’s win in this category. And, as noted in my discussion about his film’s win in the Best Picture category, I have to reiterate my feelings here about his victory for best director. I truly would have rather seen a different result here.

With all of that said, I nevertheless congratulate all the winners. In the meantime, for more on how I arrived at my predictions for the winners, please see my previous blog on the subject, “Who Will Win the 2025 Oscars?”

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