Who Will Win the 2026 Oscars?
It’s that time of year again – time for my predictions of the winners at the upcoming annual Academy Awards. For me, this is generally a labor of love, but, like 2025, this year’s awards season has again been strange – wild, unpredictable and, ultimately, often frustrating, which has made looking into my cinematic crystal ball far more difficult than in most years.
Even though 2025 was a better year for movies than the one that preceded it, many of its best offerings were overlooked when it came to awards season honors, either in terms of wins or nominations. To be sure, a number of good releases were recognized for their accomplishments, but there were many more that didn’t receive their just due in my opinion. And, as for the ones that were lucky enough to be nominated in the preliminary competitions, there has been considerable variability among the winners in the run-up to awards season’s biggest night.
Like 2024, because of the widespread variability in the results leading up to this year’s Oscars, handicapping the races has again been somewhat challenging, even though a slightly clearer picture has begun to emerge from the most recent contests. However, as in 2024, I’ll admit up front that my confidence in picking winners is not as solid as it usually is. What’s more, I believe that Oscar night could have some surprises that will stun everybody, myself included.
Unlike past years, I have expanded my coverage range for 2026. I have added two categories to my list of predictions this year. The first is the Academy’s new award for best casting, an honor to be bestowed on deserving casting directors, though many see this essentially as an award for the best acting ensemble, an area of achievement that the Oscars have been slow to embrace, despite its widespread prevalence in other competitions. And the second is the best international film category, one that I have added for personal reasons given my love of the genre and the huge crop of outstanding foreign language films that were released in 2025, a trend that has been noticeably growing in recent years (a definitive statement on the state of the domestic film industry these days). And now, with the development of the revolutionary new technology of immersive dubbing (as explained here), this is a trend that I believe could gain even greater ground in coming years.
At this point, only a few of the prospective victors in the top categories have come into clear view, with others still too close to call and potentially up for grabs. So, with that said and for what it’s worth, here are my picks for who will take home statues on Oscar night. Fingers crossed, of course.
Best Actor
The Field: Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”; Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”; Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”; Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”; Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent” (“O Agente Secreto”) (Brazil)
Who Will Likely Win: Michael B. Jordan. This is one of those categories where none of the nominees can claim to have a lock on the award. Four of the five candidates and one other actor who’s not nominated here have claimed top honors in this category in this awards season’s previous contests. Jordan is one of those performers who has taken home a statue thus far, and I believe he’s the nominee who has a slight edge over the others at this point, having won in this category at the recent Actor Awards (formerly the Screen Actors Guild Awards). As that competition is often a harbinger of who will win at the Oscars, and given that actors make up the largest Academy voting bloc, those factors bode well for Jordan. In addition, he arguably undertook the most challenging performance of the five nominees, given that his role involved the portrayal of two characters. All of these considerations stand him in good stead to take home the top prize on Oscar night.
Who Should Win (Based on the Nominees): Ethan Hawke. Ironically, Hawke is the only nominee in the field not to have received an award in this year’s prior competitions. But, in my view, he turned in the strongest performance as troubled lyricist Lorenz Hart in director Ruchard Linklater’s “Blue Moon.” Hawke’s heart-wrenching performance is undoubtedly his best work, having earned him nominations in all of this year’s competitions but no hardware. As strong as Jordan’s performance is, I believe Hawke turned in the better portrayal, but I see him as a longshot to come up the winner.
Who Should Win (Based on All Eligible Candidates): Russell Crowe, “Nuremberg”. Crowe’s chilling portrayal of Nazi Reichsmarschall Hermann Göring garnered considerable buzz at the start of awards season, but the film’s tepid box office performance likely torpedoed his chances of winning any awards, having failed to earn a single nomination in any category at any of the major forerunner competitions. That’s unfortunate in light of the strength of this outstanding portrayal, one that, sadly, has largely gone unrecognized and underappreciated. A good case might also be made for BAFTA Award winner Robert Aramayo for what appears to be his stunning performance in the British offering “I Swear”, the story of a young man struggling to live with the debilitating effects of Tourette’s Syndrome (set to be released domestically in late April). While I have not yet seen this film, I have been exceedingly impressed with clips from it and can’t wait to see what looks like an outstanding picture and performance. It will be interesting to see if Aramayo’s portrayal will receive attention when the 2027 awards season rolls around.
Possible Dark Horses: Timothée Chalamet and Wagner Moura. Ironically, Chalamet was once seen as the frontrunner at the start of awards season, having taken top honors at the Critics Choice Awards and in the best comedic actor category at the Golden Globe Awards, making him the only nominee to have won two prizes in this year’s prior contests. And some would say that he can’t be entirely ruled out at this point, either ‒ that he’s still a viable candidate and far from being a dark horse. However, as awards season has progressed, he seems to have lost some of the momentum that he once had, and that could doom his chances here. That’s especially true in the wake of his recent ill-considered, ill-timed comments about opera and ballet performers and how no one cares about them. (Oh really?) Given the often-fickle sensibilities of Academy voters, that statement illustrates a profound professional immaturity on his part that has drawn much criticism and may have sealed his fate this late in the game. As for Moura, he captured the best dramatic actor statue at the Golden Globes, so he can’t be ruled out, either, although, given that he’s a Brazilian actor who had an award bestowed upon him by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, I believe his win may well have been a one-off presented by an organization sympathetic to his candidacy, one unlikely to be repeated. In all honesty, though, I’d be shocked if either of them were to walk away with the win.
Also-Rans: Ethan Hawke, Wagner Moura and Leonardo DiCaprio. Hawke’s and Moura’s chances have already been discussed above. As for DiCaprio, his performance was solid and capable but far from his best work, despite his National Board of Review win for best actor. I honestly don’t expect to hear any of these names called on Oscar night.
Who Should Have Been Left Out: Wagner Moura. Truthfully, I’m at a loss to understand how Moura received this or any of his nominations, let alone his Golden Globe win. I can’t say that I was particularly impressed with his performance (or the picture for that matter), so his nomination here escapes me, especially since it could have been given to any number of other more deserving candidates.
Who Else Should Have Been Considered: A number of other performances would have made fine contenders in this category, including Jesse Plemons for “Bugonia”; Joaquin Phoenix for “Eddington”; Nick Offerman for “Sovereign”; Everett Blunck for “The Plague”; Will Arnett for “Is This Thing On?”; David Strathairn for “A Little Prayer”; James Sweeney for “Twinless”; Bill Skarsgård for “Dead Man’s Wire”; Steve Coogan for “The Penguin Lessons”; Robert Pattinson for “Mickey 17”; Russell Crowe and Rami Malek, both for “Nuremberg”; and, possibly, Robert Aramayo for “I Swear”, which has yet to be released in the US.
Snubs: Jesse Plemons. Plemons’s exclusion was inexcusable in my book given the strength of his performance and the many other awards season nominations he has received in this year’s other contests. In my opinion, Plemons should have received the undeserved nomination that went to Moura. This is probably the biggest Oscar snub in this year’s awards cycle.
Best Actress
The Field: Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”; Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”; Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue”; Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value” (“Affeksjonsverdi”) (Norway); Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
Who Will Likely Win: Jessie Buckley. If there was anything that comes even remotely close to a lock in the acting award categories, this would be it. I wouldn’t call it positively solid, but Buckley seems well positioned to take home the prize. As the recipient of this season’s BAFTA, Critics Choice and Actor Awards, as well as the Golden Globe for best actress in a drama, she has built a solid foundation for an Oscar win.
Who Should Win (Based on the Nominees): Rose Byrne. As capable as Buckley’s performance is, Byrne was, without a doubt, the class of the field in this category this year for her stellar portrayal in this dark comedy. I wouldn’t rule her out completely, either (see below), though I believe Buckley will be hard to beat at this point.
Who Should Win (Based on All Eligible Candidates): Rose Byrne. As I said above, Byrne was the class of the field this year, even when considered in the larger context of the entire pool of potential nominees. Her first-time nomination here could be seen as a down payment toward a future win, an outcome I’d be thrilled to see occur.
Possible Dark Horse: Rose Byrne. Calling Byrne a dark horse may be something of a misnomer, but that’s perhaps the most accurate way of characterizing her chances at this point. She’s essentially matched Buckley head to head in nominations in the contests leading up to the Oscars. She’s also captured three statues of her own – the Independent Spirit Award for best lead performance, the National Board of Review Award for best actress and Golden Globe honors for best lead actress in a musical or comedy, an impressive track record, to be sure. However, in two of those competitions – the Independent Spirit and Golden Globe Awards – she was nor competing directly against Buckley, so it’s not accurate to say she “defeated” the frontrunner in those contests. In light of that, I’d still give the edge to Buckley.
Also-Rans: Anyone who isn’t Jessie Buckley.
Who Should Have Been Left Out: No one, really; this is a good field of nominees coming out of a pool of many qualified contenders. But, if I had to pick someone, I’d probably say Kate Hudson, as she gave the “weakest” performance in the pack (a term I use very hesitantly).
Who Else Should Have Been Considered: Given the depth of contenders in this category this year, it must have been difficult to limit the field to only five candidates. There were many other nomination-worthy performances, including Chase Infiniti for “One Battle After Another”, Laura Dern for “Is This Thing On?”, June Squibb for “Eleanor the Great”, Margot Robbie for “A Big Bold Beautiful Journey”, Kathleen Chalfant for “Familiar Touch”, Maxine Peake for “Words of War”, Kerry Mulligan for “The Ballad of Wallis Island”, Patricia Clarkson for “Lilly”, Lucy Liu for “Rosemead”, Jane Levy for “A Little Prayer”, Luisa Huertas for “We Shall Not Be Moved” (“No nos moverán”) (Mexico) and Judy Greer for “Eric LaRue”. If you haven’t seen any of these pictures, these performances alone are enough to give them a look,
Snubs: Chase Infiniti. Considering the strength of the field and the viability of the pool overall, somebody was bound to be left out, and Infiniti, unfortunately, was the one to lose out. As the winner of the National Board of Review’s Breakthrough Performance Award, along with BAFTA, Actor, Critics Choice and Golden Globe Award nominations, she certainly brought an impressive resume to the table, which is why her exclusion from the Oscar field was somewhat unexpected. Hudson’s surprise nomination may well be what knocked her out of contention. But, as a young up-and-coming performer with an impressive debut portrayal, look for Infiniti to show up in future Academy competitions.
Best Supporting Actor
The Field: Benicio del Toro, “One Battle After Another”; Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein”; Delroy Lindo, “Sinners”; Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”; Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value” (“Affeksjonsverdi”) (Norway)
Who Will Likely Win: Sean Penn. As with the lead actor category, this is another contest that’s difficult to handicap, given that four of the five nominees have taken top honors in previous competitions. During most of this year’s awards season, there has been no clear-cut frontrunner – that is, until recently. In the two latest competitions, the BAFTA and Actor Awards, Penn has begun to break away from his competitors, finally living up to the potential that had been predicted for him before the start of awards season. I believe he has a slight edge at this point, but I certainly wouldn’t call it a lock by any means.
Who Should Win (Based on the Nominees): Sean Penn. Of course, the reason why Penn has a good shot at winning is because he’s the strongest nominee in the field, a superb portrayal in which he’s called upon to exhibit a variety of moods and attributes, from menacing to buffoonish to wimpy. That’s quite a range to be represented in one character, and Penn does a fine job in depicting them all.
Who Should Win (Based on All Eligible Candidates): Sean Penn. Precisely for the reasons noted above, he’s the class of the field of contenders this year.
Possible Dark Horse: Stellan Skarsgård. Even though most of his fellow nominees have won awards this year, Skarsgård probably has the best chance of upsetting Penn on Oscar night. Having won the Golden Globe Award in this category, he certainly makes a good case to take home the prize (however, it should be noted that, as with Moura’s victory in the Globes’ lead actor category, this is another instance of a foreign-born actor receiving an award from the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, an organization likely sympathetic to his nomination). Should Skarsgård win the Oscar, it might also be viewed as a lifetime achievement honor for the veteran actor who has received his first nomination at age 74. And, given the strength of his portrayal, I wouldn’t be entirely disappointed if he came up the winner. In all likelihood, though, I believe his nomination should be seen as his award.
Also-Rans: Delroy Lindo, Benicio del Toro and Jacob Elordi. Even though del Toro and Elordi have won awards this season, I don’t believe their respective National Board of Review and Critics Choice Award honors provide them with enough clout to capture the Oscar. In del Toro’s case, he turns in a good performance for what he had to work with (an underdeveloped character), while Elordi was probably honored for the patience he had to muster to sit in the makeup chair for eight hours every day before the start of shooting (an admirable accomplishment in itself, but not reason enough in my view to merit Oscar accolades). As for 73-year-old first-time Oscar contender Lindo, like Skarsgård, his nomination probably makes him another lifetime achievement award candidate. And, while his performance was certainly commendable here, it’s unfortunate that he has had to wait so long to achieve any kind of Oscar consideration, something that should have come, for example, with his excellent portrayal in “Da 5 Bloods” (2020), a role that was unceremoniously overlooked at the time. Nevertheless, all things considered, I’d be very surprised to hear any of these names called on Oscar night.
Who Should Have Been Left Out: Jacob Elordi. As capable as his performance may have been, I simply don’t believe it was in the same league as those of his fellow nominees. He should consider his nomination as his award.
Who Else Should Have Been Considered: As with the other acting categories, there were many other contenders who merited consideration, including Miles Caton for “Sinners”; Aidan Delbis for “Bugonia”; Mark Ruffalo for “Mickey 17”; Kayo Martin for “The Plague”; Jacob Tremblay for “Sovereign”; Marlon Wayans for “Him”; Ciarán Hinds for “Words of War”; Lawrence Shou for “Rosemead”; Tim Key for “The Ballad of Wallis Island”; Jonathan Pryce for “The Penguin Lessons”; Jacobi Jupe and Noah Jupe, both for “Hamnet”; and Michael Shannon, Richard E. Grant, Leo Woodall and John Slattery, all for “Nuremberg”.
Snubs: Paul Mescal for “Hamnet”. Many saw Mescal’s portrayal as a shoo-in for a nomination, and there was considerable surprise that he was left out. I, for one, however, wasn’t especially disappointed by his exclusion. I felt that he gave a somewhat hammy portrayal, one that wore its “Oscar bait” patch on his sleeve. He’s capable of better than the work he turned in here, and I appreciate the Academy recognizing that as such.
Best Supporting Actress
The Field: Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value” (“Affeksjonsverdi”) (Norway); Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value” (“Affeksjonsverdi”) (Norway); Amy Madigan, “Weapons”; Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”; Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”
Who Will Likely Win: Amy Madigan. The actress has a strong chance to take home the prize, partly because of the veracity of her performance, but also because many in the industry are anxious to see an award go to a horror movie, a category typically overlooked and not taken seriously. Having received a Golden Globe nomination and capturing wins at the Critics Choice and Actor Awards, Madigan has stood herself in good stead to take home the Oscar. As strong as this resume is, however, I don’t see this as a lock given her competition (see below).
Who Should Win (Based on the Nominees): Teyana Taylor. In this kickass performance, Taylor shows off the solid acting chops that garnered her the Golden Globe Award in this category. A victory for her on Oscar night would be a pleasant surprise and a well-earned win. Don’t count her out.
Who Should Win (Based on All Eligible Candidates): Jennifer Lopez for “Kiss of the Spider Woman”. Every year, it seems, there is a performance that inexplicably goes completely ignored, and this time that dubious distinction belongs to Lopez. I’m stunned that the quality of her singing, dancing and portrayal of three roles was totally overlooked. I’d likely chalk this up to the picture’s poor box office performance and tepid critical response, but the actress gave it her all here, and it’s disappointing to see her being shunned as she has.
Possible Dark Horses: Teyana Taylor and Wunmi Mosaku. Either of these nominees has a chance to pull an upset. Taylor’s win at the Golden Globes is the one occasion where she has bested Madigan in a head-to-head match, and she could well do this again at the Oscars, especially among Academy voters who are reluctant to reward a performance in a horror film (as happened to frontrunner favorite Demi Moore last year for her lead role in “The Substance”). And then there’s Mosaku, who came up a surprise winner in this category at the BAFTA Awards, a contest in which Madigan wasn’t nominated. Given the haul of awards that “Sinners” is expected to take home on the basis of its record 16 nominations, it’s not inconceivable to see Mosaku get swept up in picture’s Oscar tally. Again, don’t count out either of these performances.
Also-Rans: Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas. These nominees should consider their nominations as their awards. Given the formidable competition that they’re up against, as well as the vote splitting potential that they face from one another in the same category, I think it’s a fairly safe bet to say that they can both be ruled out here (even though Fanning’s nomination is well earned, a likely way of making up for her inexplicable snub last year for her superb National Board of Review Award-winning performance in “A Complete Unknown”).
Who Should Have Been Left Out: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas. This nomination baffles me, as have the many comparable nods the actress has received for this performance in this year’s other competitions. Lilleaas turns in a rather nondescript performance here, and I’m at a loss to understand how it has attracted so much attention. Perhaps this is one of those cases where someone gets mystifyingly swept up in a tidal wave of other nominations. But, whatever the cause, this is a nomination that would have been better bestowed on another candidate.
Who Else Should Have Been Considered: As in the other acting categories, there were many other worthy contenders here, too, including Nina Hoss for “Hedda”, Jennifer Lopez for “Kiss of the Spider Woman”, Emma Stone for “Eddington”, Toni Collette for “Mickey 17”, Pamela Anderson for “The Naked Gun”, Samantha Morton for “Anemone”, Julia Louis-Dreyfus for “Thunderbolts*”, Sandra Oh for “Can I Get a Witness?”, Celia Weston for “A Little Prayer”, Lily LaTorre for “Rebuilding” and Rima Te Wiata for “We Were Dangerous”.
Snubs: Jennifer Lopez. Whether it was intentional or an inadvertent oversight, Lopez’s exclusion represents a snub in my view (even if others don’t share my sentiment).
Best Casting (i.e., Best Ensemble)
The Field: “Hamnet”, “Marty Supreme”, “One Battle After Another”, “The Secret Agent” (“O Agente Secreto”) (Brazil), “Sinners”
What Will Likely Win: This is a toss-up between “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners.” If I had to give an edge to one film over the other, I’d say the tiebreaker goes to “Sinners” based largely on its win at the Actor Awards (given that actors make up the largest contingent of Academy voting members). However, given the strength of its individual performances (several of which could end up winners in their own right), the result could just as readily go the other way. As a new Oscar category, it’s unclear how this one will play out.
What Should Win (Based on the Nominees): “Sinners.” Considering the field, in my view, “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another” really are the only nominees worthy of serious consideration (more on this below). I would be pleased with either result, but I’m giving the edge to “Sinners” at this point.
What Should Win (Based on All Eligible Candidates): “Nuremberg”, As in many other Oscar categories, the exclusion of this film from consideration truly baffles me. This picture had a great cast, and it deserved to be recognized as such (at least with a nomination if not the award itself).
Possible Dark Horses: “Marty Supreme.” This is a definite longshot in this category, but, given that this is a new award at this year’s Oscars, it could very well end up being one in which “a consolation prize” is bestowed upon a film that’s unlikely to collect any other statues, as is likely to be the case with this release. It could also be seen as a way of bestowing up a runner-up award on Chalamet if he fails to capture best actor honors. Admittedly, this is all sheer conjecture on my part, and the award could just as readily go to one of the two favorites.
Also-Rans: “Hamnet”, “Marty Supreme” and “The Secret Agent” (“O Agente Secreto”) (Brazil). These nominations are all weak candidates, and I don’t believe any of them stands a realistic chance of winning.
What Should Have Been Left Out: “The Secret Agent” (“O Agente Secreto”) (Brazil), “Hamnet” and “Marty Supreme”. Drawing from what I wrote regarding the also-rans in this category, this is what should have become of them – exclusions. In light of the pool of other contenders, all three of these nominees should have been left out.
What Else Should Have Been Considered: Given that this is a new category at the Oscars this year, I was really looking forward to seeing a robust field of nominees in its debut appearance. But, I must admit, I ended up sorely disappointed, thinking to myself, “This is the best the Academy could do?” Because three slots could have been potentially opened up by deleting undeserving nominees, there are a number of other pictures that should have received consideration, including “Nuremberg”, “Sentimental Value” (“Affeksjonsverdi”) (Norway), “Eddington”, “Mickey 17”, “Black Bag”, “The Roses”, “Words of War”, “Eric LaRue”, “A Little Prayer”, “Lakeview” and “All Shall Be Well” (“Cong jin yihou”) (Hong Kong/China).
Snubs: “Sentimental Value” (“Affeksjonsverdi”) (Norway). Given the four individual acting award nominations that this film has received, I’m puzzled that it didn’t garner recognition in this category, too. This seems inexplicably inconsistent, especially considering that “Hamnet”, “Marty Supreme” and “The Secret Agent” (“O Agente Secreto”) (Brazil) each received only one (scratches head in bewilderment).
Best Director
The Field: Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet”; Josh Safdie, “Marty Supreme”; Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”; Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value” (“Affeksjonsverdi”) (Norway); Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”
Who Will Likely Win: This is a two-horse race between Paul Thomas Anderson and Ryan Coogler, and, conceivably, either of them could win. As I have often written in the past, the awards in this category and the best picture category are often closely tied to one another: whoever wins one often walks away with the other. However, there are occasions where the competition is so close that there are split decisions, with each film taking home one prize. Considering the nature of this year’s competition, I believe that will happen. To that end, I’m predicting that Anderson will claim the director’s award for “One Battle After Another,” while Coogler, as one of the producers of “Sinners,” will capture the award for best picture (see below). Of course, I can just as readily see the opposite result, too. But, given Anderson’s sweep through this year’s prior contests, winning the Golden Globe, Critics Choice, BAFTA, National Board of Review and Director’s Guild Awards, I believe he clearly has the edge in this category. Whether that streak extends to winning the best picture award, too, remains to be seen, but that, I believe, is where Coogler has the edge.
Who Should Win (Based on the Nominees): As for who deserves to win, Paul Thomas Anderson and Ryan Coogler are again strong candidates, along with Joachim Trier. However, as worthy as all three of these nominees are, I believe Trier’s chances lag behind his two competitors, and I believe he should consider his nomination as his award. In any event, I would be pleased with any of these filmmakers capturing the Oscar.
Who Should Win (Based on All Eligible Candidates): Ari Aster, “Eddington”. It escapes me how Aster, as well as his film itself, failed to capture any nominations in this year’s awards competitions. While “Eddington” managed to receive a Palme d’Or nomination at the 2025 Cannes Film Festival (the event’s highest honor), it essentially came up empty-handed everywhere else. Granted, this is a controversial picture that probably won’t appeal to a good many viewers. But, considering the courage required to make this movie in the first place, I believe that Aster deserved to be recognized for his bold vision and superb finished product. It’s a genuine shame that he has been shut out for his efforts.
Possible Dark Horse: Ryan Coogler. It might sound strange to call Coogler a dark horse at the same time he’s being considered a strong candidate to win the Oscar. However, he has Anderson’s momentum to overcome if he hopes to claim this prize. The fact that his picture received the Actor Award for best ensemble cast may have helped to bolster his chances, but it may not be enough to put him over the top.
Also-rans: Chloé Zhao and Josh Safdie. Neither of these nominees stands much of a chance in this category. Read on to see why.
Who Else Should Have Been Considered: Had the aforementioned two slots been made available, there were a number of directors who could have stepped up to fill those vacancies, including Ari Aster for “Eddington”, Yorgos Lanthimos for “Bugonia”, James Vanderbilt for “Nuremberg”, Scarlett Johansson for “Eleanor the Great”, Kogonada for “A Big Bold Beautiful Journey”, James Strong for “Words of War” and Michael Shannon for “Eric LaRue”.
Snubs: Ari Aster, for the reasons noted above.
Best International Picture
The Field: “The Secret Agent” (“O Agente Secreto”) (Brazil), “It Was Just an Accident” (“Yek tasadef sadeh”) (France), “Sentimental Value” (“Affeksjonsverdi”) (Norway), “Sirât” (Spain), “The Voice of Hind Rajab” (“Sawt Hind Rajab”) (Tunisia)
What Will Likely Win: “The Secret Agent” (“O Agente Secreto”) (Brazil). As inexplicable as it might seem, given the field of nominees and the many other contenders that vied for them, this underwhelming offering nevertheless has to be considered the frontrunner for the Oscar in this category. The picture has already won this season’s Critics Choice, Golden Globe and Independent Spirit Awards, as well as being named one of the National Board of Review’s Top 5 International Films of 2025, earning a BAFTA Award nomination for best picture not in the English language, and five honors (four wins and one nomination) at the 2025 Cannes Film Festival. With a pedigree like that, one would expect the picture to be an outstanding and deserving recipient. But, for my money, I’m hoping for an upset in this category.
What Should Win (Based on the Nominees): “The Voice of Hind Rajab” (“Sawt Hind Rajab”) (Tunisia). This gripping, fact-based drama that eloquently straddles the line between narrative and documentary filmmaking is, by far, the class of this field and truly deserves the Oscar. This Golden Globe Award nominee ended up as my top film of 2025 – and deservedly so. It’s somewhat disappointing that this release hasn’t performed better than it has during awards season, but that may be attributable in part to the fact that this is a difficult watch (sensitive viewers take note). However, it’s hard to imagine another picture, domestic or foreign, that possesses the power and impact of this one.
What Should Win (Based on All Eligible Candidates): “The Voice of Hind Rajab” (“Sawt Hind Rajab”) (Tunisia). See above.
Possible Dark Horses: “Sentimental Value” (“Affeksjonsverdi”) (Norway) and “It Was Just an Accident” (“Yek tasadef sadeh”) (France). As the only film to have bested “The Secret Agent” (“O Agente Secreto”) (Brazil) this year, “Sentimental Value” (“Affeksjonsverdi”) (Norway) could pull off an upset, as it did at the BAFTA Awards, the most recent awards competition to include a category for international releases. Indeed, as has happened on many previous occasions, films can benefit from the momentum that comes with late season victories heading into the Oscars, which could well happen here. As for “It Was Just an Accident” (“Yek tasadef sadeh”) (France), it’s important to note that this production from Iranian filmmaker Jafar Panahi could also pull an upset, given the Academy’s longstanding affinity for releases involving Iran, as well as the picture’s Palme d’Or win at the 2025 Cannes Film Festival (the event’s highest honor) and nominations in numerous other contests. Indeed, this category could conceivably produce the biggest surprise on Oscar night.
Also-Rans: “The Voice of Hind Rajab” (“Sawt Hind Rajab”) (Tunisia), “It Was Just an Accident” (“Yek tasadef sadeh”) (France) and “Sirât” (Spain). Despite the very real potential for an upset that comes from “Hind Rajab” (Tunisia) and “It Was Just an Accident” (France), I nevertheless doubt that they have enough clout behind them to yield that result. Also, as much as I enjoyed “Sirât” (Spain) (another of my favorite films of 2025), and considering its many awards season accolades (including four Cannes Film Festival wins on five nominations), it, too, likely doesn’t have the momentum behind it to make an impact, despite its many merits. It’s truly a shame that these pictures are likely to be unduly overshadowed by a lesser film.
What Should Have Been Left Out: “The Secret Agent” (“O Agente Secreto”) (Brazil). At the risk of beating a dead horse, I think my feelings about this offering should be fairly apparent by now. Needless to say, it should have been deleted from the slate of nominees.
What Else Should Have Been Considered: While I’m content to keep four of the nominees in this field, I nevertheless believe that a slot could have been opened up to accommodate a new fifth contender, and there were many fine choices available for that, including “All That’s Left of You” (“Allly baqi mink”) (Germany/Cyprus/Occupied Palestinian Territory/Jordan/Greece/Qatar/Saudi Arabia/USA/Egypt), “A Poet” (“Un poeta”) (Colombia/Sweden/Germany), “Nouvelle Vague” (“New Wave”) (France), “We Shall Not Be Moved” (“No nos moverán”) (Mexico), “My Father’s Shadow” (UK/Nigeria/Ireland), “Peacock” (“Pfau – Bin ich echt?”) (Austria/Germany), “We Were Dangerous” (New Zealand) and “All Shall Be Well” (“Cong jin yihou”) (Hong Kong/China).
Snubs: “Nouvelle Vague” (“New Wave”) (France). This probably doesn’t represent a major snub, but its exclusion in this and other Oscar categories is somewhat surprising in light of the unexpected buzz it generated in advance of the nominations announcement. As a Golden Globe, Cannes Film Festival and Independent Spirit Award nominee, this release might be best characterized as “the little picture that could,” even if it ultimately didn’t secure any formal recognition at the big dance.
Best Picture
The Field: “Bugonia”, “F1”, “Frankenstein”, “Hamnet”, “Marty Supreme”, “One Battle After Another”, “The Secret Agent” (“O Agente Secreto”) (Brazil), “Sentimental Value” (“Affeksjonsverdi”) (Norway), “Sinners”, “Train Dreams”
What Will Likely Win: As noted in the discussion regarding the best director category, I see this as a contest between “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners”, likely resulting in a split decision. Even though “One Battle After Another” has bested “Sinners” in all of the major predecessor competitions, I have a feeling that “Sinners” is overdue for a major win and will finally take the big prize at the Oscars, especially in light of its record 16 nominations. I also believe that its best ensemble cast victory at the Actor Awards has given it the momentum it needs to put it over the top. Then again, the juggernaut track record behind the success of “One Battle After Another” could continue, making for an awards season sweep. We’ll find out soon enough.
What Should Win (Based on the Nominees): “Bugonia”. As has happened frequently in recent years, I don’t believe that most of the nominees deserve the recognition they’ve been accorded in this category. However, several films, such as the two frontrunners, “Sentimental Value” (“Affeksjonsverdi”) (Norway) and this quirky offering from director Yorgos Lanthimos, truly belong as contenders, and, in my opinion, “Bugonia” is the most worthwhile choice. I would love to see it take the big prize, but, with only four nominations overall, I don’t believe its chances are very good.
What Should Win (Based on All Eligible Candidates): “The Voice of Hind Rajab” (“Sawt Hind Rajab”) (Tunisia). As noted previously, this was my best film of 2025, and it truly deserved both a nomination and the statue. Here’s hoping it claims the Oscar in the international film category as a well-deserved consolation prize.
Possible Dark Horses: “One Battle After Another”, “Sentimental Value” (“Affeksjonsverdi”) (Norway), “Hamnet” and “Train Dreams”. Realistically speaking, other than “One Battle After Another”, I don’t see any of these other candidates as having much of a chance. “Sentimental Value” (“Affeksjonsverdi”) (Norway) would be my choice to pull an upset, though it’s probably a slim possibility at this point. “Hamnet”, as a Golden Globe Award winner, could sneak its way onto the podium, but the film hasn’t shown any traction in this regard since that lone, early awards season victory. And “Train Dreams”, as the Independent Spirit Awards best feature winner, shows it has some modest viability, but it was not up against any of the other Oscar contenders in that contest, reducing its chances here to near zero.
Also-Rans: Anything that isn’t “Sinners” or “One Battle After Another”. In light of that, this once again raises the question of the wisdom behind nominating 10 films in this category, given that most of them don’t stand a chance from the get-go. Is this really a way of supposedly honoring “quality filmmaking” or a marketing ploy to raise awareness of otherwise-less recognized releases? I suppose there’s some value behind both of those intentions, regardless of the inherent futility behind most of these pictures taking home an Oscar. However, as contenders often maintain, “It’s an honor just being nominated,” so, if they can live with that, who am I to argue?
What Should Have Been Left Out: “F1”, “Frankenstein”, “Hamnet”, “Marty Supreme”, “The Secret Agent” (“O Agente Secreto”) (Brazil) and “Train Dreams”. While some of these releases may have had qualities in their favor – the cinematography and sound of “F1”, the production values of “Frankenstein”, the performances of “Hamnet” – most of them don’t rise to the level of best picture quality in my view. These nominees should have been set aside in favor of other more worthy candidates (see below).
What Else Should Have Been Considered: So which offerings should have been considered as replacement nominees? In my opinion, there are many others that should have been given a shot, including “Eddington”, “Nuremberg”, “The Plague”, “Is This Thing On?”, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”, “Sovereign”, “Rebuilding”, “Lakeview”, “Words of War”, “Sirât” (Spain), “The Voice of Hind Rajab” (“Sawt Hind Rajab”) (Tunisia), “Peacock” (“Pfau – Bin ich echt?”) (Austria/Germany), “A Poet” (“Un poeta”) (Colombia/Sweden/Germany) and “All That’s Left of You” (“Allly baqi mink”) (Germany/Cyprus/Occupied Palestinian Territory/Jordan/Greece/Qatar/Saudi Arabia/USA/Egypt).
Snubs: Potentially, anything that should have received consideration but wasn’t nominated could be labeled a snub, but some might take issue with that as an overstated contention. After all, film is a subjective artform, and opinions vary from viewer to viewer, but anything that broadens the pool and welcomes more contenders to the party is a welcome development in my book.
The Oscars will be handed out in televised ceremonies on Sunday March 15. I’ll post my report card on these predictions thereafter. Enjoy the show!
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